Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game data updated 12 min ago · markets priced 12 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 20, 5:00 PM · outdoors · wind 4 mph, 89°F (heat hurts favorites)
Cleveland Browns
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | TB | CLE | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | TB 58% | 58% | 42% | TB 1466 vs CLE 1423, implied spread TB −2.3 |
| Closing spread | TB 74% | 74% | 26% | TB -8.5 |
| Sportsbooks | TB 78% | 78% | 22% | |
| Kalshi | TB 79% | 79% | 21% | |
| Polymarket | TB 79% | 79% | 21% | |
| The blend | TB 73% | 73% | 27% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Browns: Elo 58%, market 78%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Watson is worth 34 Elo; wind 4 mph, 89°F (heat hurts favorites).
Details
- Importance 51 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 15.
- Rest: TB 7 days, CLE 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: TB 0 (Baker Mayfield), CLE +34 (Deshaun Watson). How that works.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 4 mph, 89°F (heat hurts favorites). Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 4 AM; last change Fri 4:37 AM. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (TB) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 79% | 79% | — | 0 |
| Polymarket | 79% | 79% | — | 0 |
| Sportsbooks | 78% | 78% | — | 0 |