New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Game data updated 12 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 18, 2026 · Sunday, Jan 10, 5:00 AM · outdoors
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | BUF | NYJ | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BUF 76% | 76% | 24% | BUF 1612 vs NYJ 1444, implied spread BUF −7.4 |
| Closing spread | BUF 77% | 77% | 23% | BUF -10 |
| The blend | BUF 79% | 79% | 21% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Buffalo Bills over the Jets: Elo 76%, market 77%. Tight agreement: go above both. Smith is worth 22 Elo.
Details
- Rest: BUF 7 days, NYJ 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: BUF -9 (Josh Allen), NYJ +22 (Geno Smith). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.