Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Game data updated 14 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 18, 2026 · Sunday, Jan 10, 5:00 AM · dome
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0–1 · Elo 1466 · Baker Mayfield
New Orleans Saints
0–1 · Elo 1472 · Tyler Shough (-16) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NO | TB | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NO 50% | 50% | 50% | NO 1472 vs TB 1466, implied spread NO −1.5 |
| Closing spread | TB 54% | 46% | 54% | NO +1.5 |
| The blend | TB 53% | 47% | 53% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Coin flips
Every model has the game between 45% and 55%. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game. Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Saints: Elo 50%, market 54%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Shough is costing 16 Elo.
Details
- Rest: NO 7 days, TB 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: NO -16 (Tyler Shough), TB 0 (Baker Mayfield). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.