Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
Game data updated 14 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 8, 6:00 PM · outdoors
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIA | DET | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIA 58% | 58% | 42% | MIA 1440 vs DET 1519, implied spread MIA −2.4 |
| Closing spread | DET 69% | 31% | 69% | MIA +6.5 |
| The blend | DET 62% | 38% | 62% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Detroit Lions over the Dolphins: Elo 42%, market 69%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo.
Details
- Rest: MIA 7 days, DET 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: MIA +90 (Malik Willis), DET 0 (Jared Goff). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.