Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots
Game data updated 15 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 14, 2026 · Friday, Dec 11, 1:15 AM · outdoors
Minnesota Vikings1–0 · Elo 1555 · Carson Wentz (+43)
New England Patriots
0–1 · Elo 1564 · Drake Maye · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NE | MIN | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NE 52% | 52% | 48% | NE 1564 vs MIN 1555, implied spread NE −0.6 |
| Closing spread | NE 63% | 63% | 37% | NE -4.5 |
| The blend | NE 60% | 60% | 40% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
New England Patriots over the Vikings: Elo 52%, market 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 43 Elo.
Details
- Rest: NE 4 days, MIN 4 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: NE +1 (Drake Maye), MIN +43 (Carson Wentz). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Friday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.