Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers
Game data updated 15 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 14, 2026 · Monday, Dec 14, 1:20 AM · outdoors
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | GB | BUF | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BUF 58% | 42% | 58% | GB 1500 vs BUF 1612, implied spread GB +2.2 |
| Closing spread | GB 54% | 54% | 46% | GB -1.5 |
| The blend | GB 51% | 51% | 49% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Green Bay Packers over the Bills: Elo 42%, market 54%. Big disagreement: trust the market number.
Details
- Rest: GB 7 days, BUF 7 days.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Monday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.