Denver Broncos at New York Jets
Game data updated 14 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 14, 2026 · Sunday, Dec 13, 6:00 PM · outdoors
Denver Broncos0–1 · Elo 1547 · Bo Nix
New York Jets
1–0 · Elo 1444 · Geno Smith (+22) · off a bye · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NYJ | DEN | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DEN 51% | 49% | 51% | NYJ 1444 vs DEN 1547, implied spread NYJ +0.3 |
| Closing spread | DEN 66% | 34% | 66% | NYJ +5.5 |
| The blend | DEN 62% | 38% | 62% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Denver Broncos over the Jets: Elo 51%, market 66%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Smith is worth 22 Elo; NYJ off a bye.
Details
- Rest: NYJ 14 days, DEN 7 days. NYJ off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: NYJ +22 (Geno Smith), DEN -1 (Bo Nix). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.