Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Game data updated 13 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 11, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 22, 6:00 PM · outdoors
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | BUF | MIA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BUF 67% | 67% | 33% | BUF 1612 vs MIA 1440, implied spread BUF −4.8 |
| Closing spread | BUF 80% | 80% | 20% | BUF -11.5 |
| The blend | BUF 77% | 77% | 23% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Buffalo Bills over the Dolphins: Elo 67%, market 80%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo.
Details
- Rest: BUF 7 days, MIA 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: BUF -9 (Josh Allen), MIA +90 (Malik Willis). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.