Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
Game data updated 27 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 11, 2026 · Monday, Nov 23, 1:20 AM · neutral site · outdoors
Minnesota Vikings1–0 · Elo 1555 · Carson Wentz (+43)
San Francisco 49ers
1–0 · Elo 1584 · Brock Purdy · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | SF | MIN | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIN 52% | 48% | 52% | SF 1584 vs MIN 1555, implied spread SF +0.6 |
| Closing spread | SF 60% | 60% | 40% | SF -3.5 |
| The blend | SF 57% | 57% | 43% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
San Francisco 49ers over the Vikings: Elo 48%, market 60%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 43 Elo.
Details
- Rest: SF 7 days, MIN 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: SF -1 (Brock Purdy), MIN +43 (Carson Wentz). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Monday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.