Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Game data updated 27 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 11, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 22, 6:00 PM · dome
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0–1 · Elo 1466 · Baker Mayfield · off a bye
Detroit Lions
1–1 · Elo 1519 · Jared Goff · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DET | TB | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DET 61% | 61% | 39% | DET 1519 vs TB 1466, implied spread DET −3.0 |
| Closing spread | DET 63% | 63% | 37% | DET -4.5 |
| The blend | DET 64% | 64% | 36% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Detroit Lions over the Buccaneers: Elo 61%, market 63%. Tight agreement: go above both. TB off a bye.
Details
- Rest: DET 7 days, TB 14 days. TB off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.