Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
Game data updated 27 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 12, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 29, 6:00 PM · dome
Atlanta Falcons
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIN | ATL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIN 74% | 74% | 26% | MIN 1555 vs ATL 1465, implied spread MIN −7.3 |
| Closing spread | MIN 63% | 63% | 37% | MIN -4.5 |
| The blend | MIN 66% | 66% | 34% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Minnesota Vikings over the Falcons: Elo 74%, market 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 43 Elo; Rush is costing 26 Elo; ATL off a bye.
Details
- Rest: MIN 7 days, ATL 14 days. ATL off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: MIN +43 (Carson Wentz), ATL -26 (Cooper Rush). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.