Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Game data updated 26 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 12, 2026 · Friday, Nov 27, 1:20 AM · outdoors
Kansas City Chiefs1–0 · Elo 1518 · Patrick Mahomes (+46)
Buffalo Bills
2–0 · Elo 1612 · Josh Allen · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | BUF | KC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BUF 62% | 62% | 38% | BUF 1612 vs KC 1518, implied spread BUF −3.5 |
| Closing spread | BUF 57% | 57% | 43% | BUF -2.5 |
| The blend | BUF 59% | 59% | 41% |
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The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Buffalo Bills over the Chiefs: Elo 62%, market 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo.
Details
- Rest: BUF 4 days, KC 4 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: BUF -9 (Josh Allen), KC +46 (Patrick Mahomes). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Friday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.