New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
Game data updated 27 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 12, 2026 · Monday, Nov 30, 1:20 AM · dome
New England Patriots0–1 · Elo 1564 · Drake Maye · off a bye
Los Angeles Chargers
0–1 · Elo 1481 · Justin Herbert (+18) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LAC | NE | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NE 56% | 44% | 56% | LAC 1481 vs NE 1564, implied spread LAC +1.7 |
| Closing spread | LAC 54% | 54% | 46% | LAC -1.5 |
| The blend | LAC 52% | 52% | 48% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Los Angeles Chargers over the Patriots: Elo 44%, market 54%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; NE off a bye.
Details
- Rest: LAC 7 days, NE 14 days. NE off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: LAC +18 (Justin Herbert), NE +1 (Drake Maye). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.