Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos
Game data updated 27 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 13, 2026 · Sunday, Dec 6, 9:05 PM · outdoors
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DEN | MIA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DEN 59% | 59% | 41% | DEN 1547 vs MIA 1440, implied spread DEN −2.6 |
| Closing spread | DEN 76% | 76% | 24% | DEN -9.5 |
| The blend | DEN 72% | 72% | 28% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Denver Broncos over the Dolphins: Elo 59%, market 76%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo.
Details
- Rest: DEN 9 days, MIA 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: DEN -1 (Bo Nix), MIA +90 (Malik Willis). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.