Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Game data updated 27 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 16, 2026 · Friday, Dec 25, 6:00 PM · outdoors
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | CHI | GB | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | CHI 64% | 64% | 36% | CHI 1557 vs GB 1500, implied spread CHI −4.1 |
| Closing spread | CHI 54% | 54% | 46% | CHI -1.5 |
| The blend | CHI 57% | 57% | 43% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Chicago Bears over the Packers: Elo 64%, market 54%. Big disagreement: trust the market number.
Details
- Rest: CHI 6 days, GB 5 days.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Friday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.