San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs
Game data updated 27 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 16, 2026 · Sunday, Dec 27, 9:25 PM · outdoors
San Francisco 49ers1–0 · Elo 1584 · Brock Purdy · off a bye
Kansas City Chiefs
1–0 · Elo 1518 · Patrick Mahomes (+46) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | KC | SF | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | KC 50% | 50% | 50% | KC 1518 vs SF 1584, implied spread KC −0.1 |
| Closing spread | KC 59% | 59% | 41% | KC -3 |
| The blend | KC 57% | 57% | 43% |
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The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Kansas City Chiefs over the 49ers: Elo 50%, market 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; SF off a bye.
Details
- Rest: KC 6 days, SF 10 days. SF off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: KC +46 (Patrick Mahomes), SF -1 (Brock Purdy). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.