Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns
Game data updated 26 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 17, 2026 · Sunday, Jan 3, 6:00 PM · outdoors
Indianapolis Colts0–1 · Elo 1472 · Daniel Jones
Cleveland Browns
0–1 · Elo 1423 · Deshaun Watson (+34) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | CLE | IND | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | CLE 56% | 56% | 44% | CLE 1423 vs IND 1472, implied spread CLE −1.5 |
| Closing spread | IND 57% | 43% | 57% | CLE +2.5 |
| The blend | IND 54% | 46% | 54% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Indianapolis Colts over the Browns: Elo 44%, market 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Watson is worth 34 Elo.
Details
- Rest: CLE 7 days, IND 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: CLE +34 (Deshaun Watson), IND -6 (Daniel Jones). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.