Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Game data updated 27 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 17, 2026 · Sunday, Jan 3, 5:00 AM · dome
Kansas City Chiefs1–0 · Elo 1518 · Patrick Mahomes (+46)
Los Angeles Chargers
0–1 · Elo 1481 · Justin Herbert (+18) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LAC | KC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | KC 52% | 48% | 52% | LAC 1481 vs KC 1518, implied spread LAC +0.7 |
| Closing spread | LAC 54% | 54% | 46% | LAC -1.5 |
| The blend | LAC 53% | 53% | 47% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Coin flips
Every model has the game between 45% and 55%. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game. Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns.
Los Angeles Chargers over the Chiefs: Elo 48%, market 54%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; Mahomes is worth 46 Elo.
Details
- Rest: LAC 7 days, KC 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: LAC +18 (Justin Herbert), KC +46 (Patrick Mahomes). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.