Washington Commanders at Jacksonville Jaguars
Game data updated 27 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 17, 2026 · Sunday, Jan 3, 5:00 AM · outdoors
Washington Commanders0–1 · Elo 1467 · Jayden Daniels (+15)
Jacksonville Jaguars
1–0 · Elo 1571 · Trevor Lawrence · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | JAX | WSH | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | JAX 69% | 69% | 31% | JAX 1571 vs WSH 1467, implied spread JAX −5.6 |
| Closing spread | JAX 60% | 60% | 40% | JAX -3.5 |
| The blend | JAX 62% | 62% | 38% |
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The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Jacksonville Jaguars over the Commanders: Elo 69%, market 60%. Clear favorite, take the average.
Details
- Rest: JAX 7 days, WSH 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: JAX +3 (Trevor Lawrence), WSH +15 (Jayden Daniels). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.