Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Game data updated 23 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 27, 8:05 PM · outdoors
Arizona Cardinals1–0 · Elo 1488 · Jacoby Brissett (-40)
San Francisco 49ers
1–0 · Elo 1584 · Brock Purdy · Home
Lock of the week. This game is one of our two picks this week. Sign in to see it.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | SF | ARI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | SF 74% | 74% | 26% | SF 1584 vs ARI 1488, implied spread SF −7.3 |
| Closing spread | SF 74% | 74% | 26% | SF -8.5 |
| The blend | SF 76% | 76% | 24% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
San Francisco 49ers over the Cardinals: Elo 74%, market 74%. Tight agreement: go above both. Brissett is costing 40 Elo.
Details
- Rest: SF 7 days, ARI 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: SF -1 (Brock Purdy), ARI -40 (Jacoby Brissett). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.