Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Game data updated 22 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 27, 5:00 PM · outdoors
Cincinnati Bengals1–0 · Elo 1505 · Joe Burrow (+17)
Pittsburgh Steelers
1–0 · Elo 1526 · Aaron Rodgers · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | PIT | CIN | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | PIT 57% | 57% | 43% | PIT 1526 vs CIN 1505, implied spread PIT −2.0 |
| Closing spread | CIN 57% | 43% | 57% | PIT +2.5 |
| The blend | CIN 54% | 46% | 54% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Cincinnati Bengals over the Steelers: Elo 43%, market 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Burrow is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Rest: PIT 7 days, CIN 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: PIT -2 (Aaron Rodgers), CIN +17 (Joe Burrow). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.