Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Game data updated 22 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 27, 5:00 PM · closed
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | IND | HOU | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | HOU 56% | 44% | 56% | IND 1472 vs HOU 1556, implied spread IND +1.7 |
| Closing spread | HOU 57% | 43% | 57% | IND +2.5 |
| The blend | HOU 59% | 41% | 59% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Houston Texans over the Colts: Elo 56%, market 57%. Tight agreement: go above both.
Details
- Rest: IND 7 days, HOU 7 days.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.