Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos
Game data updated 22 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Monday, Sep 28, 12:20 AM · outdoors
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DEN | LAR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DEN 57% | 57% | 43% | DEN 1547 vs LAR 1545, implied spread DEN −2.0 |
| Closing spread | LAR 57% | 43% | 57% | DEN +2.5 |
| The blend | LAR 54% | 46% | 54% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Los Angeles Rams over the Broncos: Elo 43%, market 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number.
Details
- Rest: DEN 7 days, LAR 6 days.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Monday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.