New York Jets at Detroit Lions
Game data updated 23 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 27, 5:00 PM · dome
New York Jets1–0 · Elo 1444 · Geno Smith (+22)
Detroit Lions
1–1 · Elo 1519 · Jared Goff · off a bye · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DET | NYJ | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DET 67% | 67% | 33% | DET 1519 vs NYJ 1444, implied spread DET −5.0 |
| Closing spread | DET 70% | 70% | 30% | DET -7 |
| The blend | DET 71% | 71% | 29% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Detroit Lions over the Jets: Elo 67%, market 70%. Tight agreement: go above both. Smith is worth 22 Elo; DET off a bye.
Details
- Rest: DET 10 days, NYJ 7 days. DET off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: DET 0 (Jared Goff), NYJ +22 (Geno Smith). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.