Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Game data updated 23 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 4, 2026 · Tuesday, Oct 6, 12:15 AM · dome
Atlanta Falcons0–1 · Elo 1465 · Cooper Rush (-26) · off a bye
New Orleans Saints
0–1 · Elo 1472 · Tyler Shough (-16) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NO | ATL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NO 56% | 56% | 44% | NO 1472 vs ATL 1465, implied spread NO −1.6 |
| Closing spread | NO 57% | 57% | 43% | NO -2.5 |
| The blend | NO 59% | 59% | 41% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
New Orleans Saints over the Falcons: Elo 56%, market 57%. Tight agreement: go above both. Shough is costing 16 Elo; Rush is costing 26 Elo; ATL off a bye.
Details
- Rest: NO 8 days, ATL 11 days. ATL off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: NO -16 (Tyler Shough), ATL -26 (Cooper Rush). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.