Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Game data updated 22 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 4, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 4, 5:00 PM · outdoors
Los Angeles Rams0–1 · Elo 1545 · Matthew Stafford
Philadelphia Eagles
1–0 · Elo 1539 · Jalen Hurts (+17) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | PHI | LAR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | PHI 59% | 59% | 41% | PHI 1539 vs LAR 1545, implied spread PHI −2.4 |
| Closing spread | LAR 54% | 46% | 54% | PHI +1.5 |
| The blend | LAR 51% | 49% | 51% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Los Angeles Rams over the Eagles: Elo 41%, market 54%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Hurts is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Rest: PHI 6 days, LAR 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: PHI +17 (Jalen Hurts), LAR 0 (Matthew Stafford). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.