Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
Game data updated 23 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 4, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 4, 8:05 PM · dome
Miami Dolphins0–1 · Elo 1440 · Malik Willis (+90)
Minnesota Vikings
1–0 · Elo 1555 · Carson Wentz (+43) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIN | MIA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIN 66% | 66% | 34% | MIN 1555 vs MIA 1440, implied spread MIN −4.6 |
| Closing spread | MIN 71% | 71% | 29% | MIN -7.5 |
| The blend | MIN 70% | 70% | 30% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Minnesota Vikings over the Dolphins: Elo 66%, market 71%. Clear favorite, take the average. Wentz is worth 43 Elo; Willis is worth 90 Elo.
Details
- Rest: MIN 7 days, MIA 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: MIN +43 (Carson Wentz), MIA +90 (Malik Willis). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.