Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
Game data updated 25 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Tuesday, Oct 13, 12:15 AM · dome
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LAR | BUF | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BUF 52% | 48% | 52% | LAR 1545 vs BUF 1612, implied spread LAR +0.4 |
| Closing spread | LAR 59% | 59% | 41% | LAR -3 |
| The blend | LAR 56% | 56% | 44% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Los Angeles Rams over the Bills: Elo 48%, market 59%. Big disagreement: trust the market number.
Details
- Rest: LAR 8 days, BUF 8 days.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.