Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Game data updated 27 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 11, 8:25 PM · outdoors
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | GB | CHI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | CHI 51% | 49% | 51% | GB 1500 vs CHI 1557, implied spread GB +0.3 |
| Closing spread | GB 59% | 59% | 41% | GB -3 |
| The blend | GB 56% | 56% | 44% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Green Bay Packers over the Bears: Elo 49%, market 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine.
Details
- Rest: GB 7 days, CHI 7 days.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.