Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
Game data updated 26 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 11, 5:00 PM · outdoors
Cleveland Browns0–1 · Elo 1423 · Deshaun Watson (+34) · off a bye
New York Jets
1–0 · Elo 1444 · Geno Smith (+22) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NYJ | CLE | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NYJ 55% | 55% | 45% | NYJ 1444 vs CLE 1423, implied spread NYJ −1.3 |
| Closing spread | NYJ 54% | 54% | 46% | NYJ -1.5 |
| The blend | NYJ 54% | 54% | 46% |
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The spot: Coin flips
Every model has the game between 45% and 55%. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game. Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns.
New York Jets over the Browns: Elo 55%, market 54%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Smith is worth 22 Elo; Watson is worth 34 Elo; CLE off a bye.
Details
- Rest: NYJ 7 days, CLE 10 days. CLE off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: NYJ +22 (Geno Smith), CLE +34 (Deshaun Watson). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.