Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Game data updated 26 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 11, 8:25 PM · closed
Detroit Lions1–1 · Elo 1519 · Jared Goff
Arizona Cardinals
1–0 · Elo 1488 · Jacoby Brissett (-40) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | ARI | DET | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DET 53% | 47% | 53% | ARI 1488 vs DET 1519, implied spread ARI +0.9 |
| Closing spread | DET 74% | 26% | 74% | ARI +8.5 |
| The blend | DET 69% | 31% | 69% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Detroit Lions over the Cardinals: Elo 53%, market 74%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Brissett is costing 40 Elo.
Details
- Rest: ARI 7 days, DET 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: ARI -40 (Jacoby Brissett), DET 0 (Jared Goff). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.