Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Game data updated 26 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 11, 5:00 PM · outdoors
Indianapolis Colts0–1 · Elo 1472 · Daniel Jones
Pittsburgh Steelers
1–0 · Elo 1526 · Aaron Rodgers · off a bye · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | PIT | IND | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | PIT 68% | 68% | 32% | PIT 1526 vs IND 1472, implied spread PIT −5.2 |
| Closing spread | PIT 57% | 57% | 43% | PIT -2.5 |
| The blend | PIT 60% | 60% | 40% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Pittsburgh Steelers over the Colts: Elo 68%, market 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. PIT off a bye.
Details
- Rest: PIT 10 days, IND 7 days. PIT off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.