Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Game data updated 27 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 6, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 18, 5:00 PM · closed
Chicago Bears1–0 · Elo 1557 · Caleb Williams
Atlanta Falcons
0–1 · Elo 1465 · Cooper Rush (-26) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | ATL | CHI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | CHI 60% | 40% | 60% | ATL 1465 vs CHI 1557, implied spread ATL +2.8 |
| Closing spread | CHI 59% | 41% | 59% | ATL +3 |
| The blend | CHI 61% | 39% | 61% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Chicago Bears over the Falcons: Elo 60%, market 59%. Tight agreement: go above both. Rush is costing 26 Elo.
Details
- Rest: ATL 7 days, CHI 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: ATL -26 (Cooper Rush), CHI 0 (Caleb Williams). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.