Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Game data updated 27 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 6, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 18, 8:25 PM · outdoors
Los Angeles Chargers
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | KC | LAC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | KC 69% | 69% | 31% | KC 1518 vs LAC 1481, implied spread KC −5.5 |
| Closing spread | KC 57% | 57% | 43% | KC -2.5 |
| The blend | KC 60% | 60% | 40% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Kansas City Chiefs over the Chargers: Elo 69%, market 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; Herbert is worth 18 Elo; KC off a bye.
Details
- Rest: KC 14 days, LAC 7 days. KC off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: KC +46 (Patrick Mahomes), LAC +18 (Justin Herbert). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.