Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
Game data updated 22 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 7, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 25, 5:00 PM · dome
Indianapolis Colts0–1 · Elo 1472 · Daniel Jones
Minnesota Vikings
1–0 · Elo 1555 · Carson Wentz (+43) · off a bye · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIN | IND | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIN 76% | 76% | 24% | MIN 1555 vs IND 1472, implied spread MIN −8.2 |
| Closing spread | MIN 57% | 57% | 43% | MIN -2.5 |
| The blend | MIN 62% | 62% | 38% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Minnesota Vikings over the Colts: Elo 76%, market 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 43 Elo; MIN off a bye.
Details
- Rest: MIN 14 days, IND 7 days. MIN off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: MIN +43 (Carson Wentz), IND -6 (Daniel Jones). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.