Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Game data updated 12 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 7, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 25, 5:00 PM · outdoors
Miami Dolphins
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NYJ | MIA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIA 56% | 44% | 56% | NYJ 1444 vs MIA 1440, implied spread NYJ +1.6 |
| Closing spread | NYJ 57% | 57% | 43% | NYJ -2.5 |
| The blend | NYJ 54% | 54% | 46% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
New York Jets over the Dolphins: Elo 44%, market 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Smith is worth 22 Elo; Willis is worth 90 Elo; MIA off a bye.
Details
- Rest: NYJ 7 days, MIA 14 days. MIA off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: NYJ +22 (Geno Smith), MIA +90 (Malik Willis). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.