Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game data updated 13 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 8, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 1, 6:00 PM · outdoors
Atlanta Falcons0–1 · Elo 1465 · Cooper Rush (-26)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0–1 · Elo 1466 · Baker Mayfield · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | TB | ATL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | TB 61% | 61% | 39% | TB 1466 vs ATL 1465, implied spread TB −3.0 |
| Closing spread | TB 63% | 63% | 37% | TB -4.5 |
| The blend | TB 65% | 65% | 35% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Falcons: Elo 61%, market 63%. Tight agreement: go above both. Rush is costing 26 Elo.
Details
- Rest: TB 7 days, ATL 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: TB 0 (Baker Mayfield), ATL -26 (Cooper Rush). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.