Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Game data updated 12 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 8, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 1, 6:00 PM · outdoors
Indianapolis Colts0–1 · Elo 1472 · Daniel Jones
Jacksonville Jaguars
1–0 · Elo 1571 · Trevor Lawrence · off a bye · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | JAX | IND | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | JAX 74% | 74% | 26% | JAX 1571 vs IND 1472, implied spread JAX −7.2 |
| Closing spread | JAX 63% | 63% | 37% | JAX -4.5 |
| The blend | JAX 66% | 66% | 34% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Jacksonville Jaguars over the Colts: Elo 74%, market 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. JAX off a bye.
Details
- Rest: JAX 14 days, IND 7 days. JAX off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.