New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Game data updated 13 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 8, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 1, 9:25 PM · outdoors
New England Patriots0–1 · Elo 1564 · Drake Maye · off a bye
Miami Dolphins
0–1 · Elo 1440 · Malik Willis (+90) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIA | NE | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NE 52% | 48% | 52% | MIA 1440 vs NE 1564, implied spread MIA +0.5 |
| Closing spread | NE 70% | 30% | 70% | MIA +7 |
| The blend | NE 65% | 35% | 65% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
New England Patriots over the Dolphins: Elo 52%, market 70%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; NE off a bye.
Details
- Rest: MIA 7 days, NE 10 days. NE off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: MIA +90 (Malik Willis), NE +1 (Drake Maye). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.