Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals
Game data updated 12 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 12, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 29, 9:25 PM · closed
Washington Commanders0–1 · Elo 1467 · Jayden Daniels (+15)
Arizona Cardinals
1–0 · Elo 1488 · Jacoby Brissett (-40) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | ARI | WSH | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | ARI 52% | 52% | 48% | ARI 1488 vs WSH 1467, implied spread ARI −0.6 |
| Closing spread | WSH 63% | 37% | 63% | ARI +4.5 |
| The blend | WSH 59% | 41% | 59% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Washington Commanders over the Cardinals: Elo 48%, market 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Brissett is costing 40 Elo.
Details
- Rest: ARI 7 days, WSH 6 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: ARI -40 (Jacoby Brissett), WSH +15 (Jayden Daniels). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.