Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
Game data updated 26 min ago · markets priced 26 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 20, 5:00 PM · closed
Cincinnati Bengals1–0 · Elo 1505 · Joe Burrow (+17)
Houston Texans
0–1 · Elo 1556 · C.J. Stroud · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | HOU | CIN | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | HOU 62% | 62% | 38% | HOU 1556 vs CIN 1505, implied spread HOU −3.3 |
| Closing spread | HOU 57% | 57% | 43% | HOU -2.5 |
| Sportsbooks | HOU 57% | 57% | 43% | |
| Kalshi | HOU 59% | 59% | 42% | |
| Polymarket | HOU 57% | 57% | 43% | |
| The blend | HOU 59% | 59% | 41% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Houston Texans over the Bengals: Elo 62%, market 58%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Burrow is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Importance 64 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 43.
- Rest: HOU 7 days, CIN 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: HOU +1 (C.J. Stroud), CIN +17 (Joe Burrow). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 4 AM; last change Fri 4:37 AM. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (HOU) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 59% | 59% | — | 0 |
| Polymarket | 57% | 57% | — | 0 |
| Sportsbooks | 57% | 57% | — | 0 |