Green Bay Packers at New York Jets
Game data updated 27 min ago · markets priced 27 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 20, 5:00 PM · outdoors · wind 7 mph, 62°F
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NYJ | GB | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NYJ 52% | 52% | 48% | NYJ 1444 vs GB 1500, implied spread NYJ −0.5 |
| Closing spread | GB 60% | 40% | 60% | NYJ +3.5 |
| Sportsbooks | GB 62% | 38% | 62% | |
| Kalshi | GB 62% | 39% | 62% | |
| Polymarket | GB 62% | 39% | 62% | |
| The blend | GB 58% | 42% | 58% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Green Bay Packers over the Jets: Elo 48%, market 62%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Smith is worth 22 Elo.
Details
- Importance 44 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 24.
- Rest: NYJ 7 days, GB 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: NYJ +22 (Geno Smith), GB +0 (Jordan Love). How that works.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 7 mph, 62°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 4 AM; last change Fri 4:37 AM. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (NYJ) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 39% | 39% | — | 0 |
| Polymarket | 39% | 39% | — | 0 |
| Sportsbooks | 38% | 38% | — | 0 |