Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Game data updated 26 min ago · markets priced 26 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 20, 8:05 PM · outdoors · wind 11 mph, 75°F
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DEN | JAX | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DEN 53% | 53% | 47% | DEN 1547 vs JAX 1571, implied spread DEN −0.8 |
| Closing spread | DEN 57% | 57% | 43% | DEN -2.5 |
| Sportsbooks | DEN 58% | 58% | 42% | |
| Kalshi | DEN 59% | 59% | 42% | |
| Polymarket | DEN 59% | 59% | 42% | |
| The blend | DEN 57% | 57% | 43% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Denver Broncos over the Jaguars: Elo 53%, market 58%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine.
Details
- Importance 54 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 53.
- Rest: DEN 6 days, JAX 7 days.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 11 mph, 75°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 4 AM; last change Fri 4:37 AM. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (DEN) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 59% | 59% | — | 0 |
| Polymarket | 59% | 59% | — | 0 |
| Sportsbooks | 58% | 58% | — | 0 |