Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans
Game data updated 25 min ago · markets priced 25 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 20, 5:00 PM · outdoors · wind 5 mph, 89°F (heat hurts favorites)
Philadelphia Eagles
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | TEN | PHI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | PHI 67% | 33% | 67% | TEN 1364 vs PHI 1539, implied spread TEN +5.0 |
| Closing spread | PHI 70% | 30% | 70% | TEN +7 |
| Sportsbooks | PHI 74% | 26% | 74% | |
| Kalshi | PHI 76% | 25% | 76% | |
| Polymarket | PHI 76% | 25% | 76% | |
| The blend | PHI 73% | 27% | 73% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Philadelphia Eagles over the Titans: Elo 67%, market 75%. Clear favorite, take the average. Ward is worth 19 Elo; Hurts is worth 17 Elo; wind 5 mph, 89°F (heat hurts favorites).
Details
- Importance 39 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 15.
- Rest: TEN 7 days, PHI 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: TEN +19 (Cam Ward), PHI +17 (Jalen Hurts). How that works.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 5 mph, 89°F (heat hurts favorites). Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 4 AM; last change Fri 4:37 AM. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (TEN) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 25% | 25% | — | 0 |
| Polymarket | 25% | 25% | — | 0 |
| Sportsbooks | 26% | 26% | — | 0 |