New England Patriots at Detroit Lions
Game data updated 12 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 10, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 15, 2:30 PM · neutral site · dome
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DET | NE | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NE 57% | 43% | 57% | DET 1519 vs NE 1564, implied spread DET +1.9 |
| Closing spread | DET 54% | 54% | 46% | DET -1.5 |
| The blend | DET 52% | 52% | 48% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Detroit Lions over the Patriots: Elo 43%, market 54%. Big disagreement: trust the market number.
Details
- Rest: DET 7 days, NE 7 days.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.