Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Game data updated 14 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 10, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 15, 6:00 PM · outdoors
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NYJ | BUF | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BUF 62% | 38% | 62% | NYJ 1444 vs BUF 1612, implied spread NYJ +3.5 |
| Closing spread | BUF 70% | 30% | 70% | NYJ +7 |
| The blend | BUF 68% | 32% | 68% |
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The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Buffalo Bills over the Jets: Elo 62%, market 70%. Clear favorite, take the average. Smith is worth 22 Elo.
Details
- Rest: NYJ 7 days, BUF 6 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: NYJ +22 (Geno Smith), BUF -9 (Josh Allen). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.