San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys
Game data updated 12 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 10, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 15, 9:25 PM · closed
San Francisco 49ers1–0 · Elo 1584 · Brock Purdy
Dallas Cowboys
0–1 · Elo 1449 · Dak Prescott (+17) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DAL | SF | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | SF 60% | 40% | 60% | DAL 1449 vs SF 1584, implied spread DAL +2.8 |
| Closing spread | DAL 54% | 54% | 46% | DAL -1.5 |
| The blend | DAL 51% | 51% | 49% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Dallas Cowboys over the 49ers: Elo 40%, market 54%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Rest: DAL 7 days, SF 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: DAL +17 (Dak Prescott), SF -1 (Brock Purdy). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.